Luxury doesn’t exist.
Or at least in the sense that the majority of people think it does.
My mentality changed with this watch—
This is one of the most incredible creations I have ever seen.
The settings. The symmetry. The usability even with the stones.
My instinct: $1M.
MSRP? $650K.
Real secondary market? Up to $950K. Only 3–5 in circulation.
What does any of this have to do with luxury?
This watch is not luxury. It’s high-value.
And not in the sense of the name or the fact that it’s covered in diamonds, but in the objective sense that this is a high-value horological item.
The High-Value Model™:
Materials quality
Rational pricing
Appreciation potential
Longevity
Aesthetic weight
This is how we will differentiate high-value with “overpriced” and “lower tier.”
Let’s establish some benchmarks for the comparable categories.
Overpriced Defined
Does not meet the high-value framework( i.e. price exceeds quality of materials)
Price relies on brand
Price relies on hype
Overpriced can include any object from anyone or any brand. It’s simple a set of guidelines to determine value.
Value vs. Price
Value is different than price.
Price is what someone will pay.
Value is what something is worth.
When we say value, we mean market-corrected worth over time. Not vibes.
Worth can differ by person by item, but in this case we are speaking in quantitative metrics, not sentimentality.
Lower tier is what I will call average consumer goods.
No additional information needed.
I will now breakdown a few objects using this framework.
Analysis
Item 01: Chanel Look
This look, specifically the RTW is overpriced.
MSRP $2,600
Price score 3/5
Not an insulting ask, just not worth $2,600.
Rational:
Trendy
It’s denim. You’re overpaying
Chanel brand value doesn’t hold on denim
Opposition
Above are a pair from the 2024 collection priced over our current item—with a ‘smart investment’ tag, no less.
The Real Real has a few pairs of actually unique and interesting Chanel jeans that are not labeled as ‘smart investments,’ but would undeniably be more so than their pick.
Considerations of the above product:
These are actually interesting.
The logo is unique, not trendy.
89 people saved this versus 17 people saved the first ‘smart investment.’
Why are the 2024 jeans priced more than the 2023 ones? Why are they a smart investment?
a) the year and b) the 2024 being NWT allows for a higher price point. Yet it doesn’t signal actual value.
Iconic status would be needed to pay more for a 2024 pair than brand new from Chanel 2026 runway.
Overpriced.
Kinda interesting but not a long-term play.
No—and what does TRR have? Smart investment.
Key Insights
This is the entire issue with the current ‘luxury’ framework.
People see everything as an investment, which is impossible. Or people decide based on their own opinions or revenue goals what the price should be.
The best denim in this list, the one that is in fact the best investment, is the one with 89 likes that TRR doesn’t have as a ‘smart investment.’
Maybe they don’t need that label because it’s obvious.
Or, maybe, framing something that isn’t selling well or you want a higher price for as a ‘smart investment’ is a business tactic.
Either way—this first item can be broken down into clear data.
The bootcut, lack of well-done logo features or significant uniqueness, general nature of denim, and the acid-wash indicate: not a investment piece.
Not high-value.
Overpriced.
And that is fine if you like the jeans.
Not everything has to be seen through the lens of investing. But in general, that is my lens.
Estimated secondaries price would be aimed at over $2k NWT, but would most likely sit at that price for a long while.
Item 02: Panthere de Cartier
This one might get pushback.
Overpriced on a watch basis.
Lovely on a general basis.
This is a nice watch. I don’t deny it. I have it. I like it—or I used to.
The materials are good.
The feel, fit, longevity—all good.
The issue here is that it’s like a car: as soon as you drive it off the lot, it’s value decreases by 30%.
Now 30% might be a bit high in reality, since prices increase each year with Cartier, so perhaps if you buy it NWB and then resale you may get just about MSRP, or maybe 10-20% less, but lack of scarcity indicates no matter what you’ll get below MSRP.
Especially considering the reason to buy a watch from Cartier is to have the experience of buying a watch from Cartier, which to me, is why I was fine paying for the overpriced bracelet in the form of a watch.
Do you see the way this works?
End Zone
None of these items are luxury because luxury is a mentality, not an object.
Luxury is experience, not fabric.
Luxury is so overused now, I’m removing it from my vocabulary. It doesn’t mean what anyone says anyway.
From now on, valuations are done based on the High-Value Model, through an investment lens, with quantifiable data, and with an inherit understanding of culture and capital.